Chapter 1: Railways as Geopolitical Instruments
The Geopolitical Context of Iron Networks
Turkey’s railway investments represent more than infrastructure development—they are strategic moves in the competition for control over Eurasian trade and logistics routes. These projects aim to reshape the balance of power in Eurasia while serving as concrete instruments of geopolitical strategy.
From Nationalization to Global Competition
Turkey’s railway policy has embodied state wisdom since the Republic’s early years. The rapid nationalization of foreign-built lines and construction of new routes using national capital represented both economic development and a sovereignty project that consolidated national unity and laid industrialization foundations.
This strategic vision has evolved into a global objective through the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure’s 2053 Transport and Logistics Master Plan. The plan targets increasing Turkey’s railway network from 13,990 km to 28,590 km by 2053, with interim goals of 17,500 km by 2028.
The strategic prioritization is evident in resource allocation. Railway investments’ share of total transportation expenditures increased from 33% in 2003 to 48% in 2023. This represents a fundamental paradigm shift in Turkey’s national strategic priorities, transitioning from a highway-focused “concrete economy” to a railway-centered “strategic artery economy.”
The “Corridor Wars”: Global Bottlenecks Create Opportunities
Two major global developments have increased demand for alternative routes with Turkey at the center:
The Northern Corridor Crisis: The Russo-Ukrainian War has made the traditional Northern Corridor connecting China to Europe politically and financially burdensome for Western countries. Shipment volumes on this route fell by half in 2023.
Red Sea Disruption: Security concerns in the Red Sea have severely disrupted the Suez Canal, forcing ships to circumnavigate Africa and significantly increasing time and costs.
These simultaneous bottlenecks have created unprecedented strategic opportunities for alternative routes, positioning Turkey at the center of two main corridors:
Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Transportation Route – TITR)
Connecting China to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and Turkey, this route is twice as fast as sea travel and four times more economical than air transport. Transit time from China to Europe could be reduced to 4-8 days, compared to over 5 days for the Northern Corridor and 22-37 days for southern sea routes.
Traffic increases of 89% and 70% were recorded in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Critical infrastructure projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway and Marmaray position Turkey as the crucial final bridge to Europe.
Iraq Development Road
This project connects the Greater Faw Port in the Persian Gulf to Europe via rail and highway networks through Iraq to the Turkish border. Designed as a Suez Canal alternative, it offers a five-day transit time reduction compared to sea routes. Turkey’s strong support for this project, backed by Qatar and the UAE, represents a proactive strategic move against initiatives that could bypass Turkish territory.
Strategic Risk Management
Turkey’s simultaneous support for both the Middle Corridor and Development Road represents a “strategic hedging” approach based on creating options and managing uncertainty. This “two corridors” strategy is the infrastructure equivalent of classical geopolitics’ “balance of power” policy.
By embracing both corridors, Turkey avoids confinement to a single geopolitical axis and transforms from a passive bridge into an active “geo-economic pivot” managing global flows. This provides Turkey with “gatekeeper” status and strengthens its negotiating power with major powers.
Chapter 2: Western Alignment – Military Mobility and Euro-Atlantic Defense
Military Schengen: Europe’s New Defense Priority
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine exposed critical shortcomings in Europe’s ability to move large-scale military forces across the continent. Bureaucratic hurdles, incompatible customs procedures, and infrastructure limitations emerged as major obstacles to rapid military deployment.
This experience led to the “Military Schengen” concept, formalized in the EU’s Military Mobility Action Plan 2.0. The plan includes:
- Modernizing civilian transport infrastructure for military needs
- Making the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) “dual-use” (civilian-defense)
- Allocating €1.7 billion through the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF)
- Digitalizing and harmonizing cross-border movement permits
Turkey’s Strategic Position
Turkey’s geographical location—bordering the Black Sea, Caucasus, and Middle East—makes it crucial for NATO’s southeastern flank logistics. The railway corridors discussed earlier would provide concrete support for this pivotal role.
Turkey’s pursuit of “strategic autonomy” paradoxically increases its NATO value. The alliance needs Turkey’s logistical depth and emphasized military power more than ever, providing Ankara with greater diplomatic leverage.
Turkey can leverage “strategic arbitrage” by aligning its infrastructure projects with EU security concerns. Infrastructure built for economic and geopolitical interests can be reframed as solutions to EU security needs, potentially unlocking EU modernization funds.
Technical Compatibility Challenges
Track Gauge Standardization
The Ukraine war highlighted the logistical nightmare of different railway track gauges. While some former Eastern Bloc countries use Russian gauge (1520 mm), most NATO members use standard gauge (1435 mm). Turkey’s use of standard gauge throughout its network provides a natural advantage for NATO military logistics.
NATO Logistics Principles
Effective military mobility must adhere to core NATO logistics principles, including assured resource supply, agility, and unity of effort. Turkey’s rail network must be fully integrated into this system physically, procedurally, and operationally.
Chapter 3: Strengthening Core Railway Infrastructure
Physical Security and Infrastructure Readiness
Modern conflicts have demonstrated how targetable critical infrastructure can be. Railways, as logistics backbones, are prime military targets.
Lessons from Ukraine
Russia’s partial invasion proved that railway networks are primary military targets. Both sides systematically targeted key bridges, railway lines, and transformer substations. Reports of Russian sabotage campaigns against European transportation infrastructure suggest threats extend beyond conventional warfare.
NATO Military Load Classification (MLC)
Transporting main battle tanks requires infrastructure capable of safely carrying massive loads. NATO’s STANAG 202 establishes the Military Load Classification system, classifying bridges, viaducts, and routes according to their weight-bearing capacity.
A route’s overall MLC rating is determined by its weakest bridge. Comprehensive inventory of Turkey’s strategic rail corridors according to MLC standards and addressing critical deficiencies represents an urgent national security priority.
Domestic Protection Solutions
Turkish defense and transportation companies can significantly contribute to physically strengthening railway assets. Companies like ROKETSAN could develop modular armor kits compliant with NATO STANAG 4569 ballistic protection standards for critical locomotives and sensitive cargo wagons.
Cybersecurity for Digital Railways
Modern railways operate through complex Industrial Automation and Control Systems (IACS) based on Operational Technology (OT). This digitalization increases efficiency while introducing serious security vulnerabilities.
Unlike IT attacks with primarily economic consequences, successful cyberattacks on railway OT systems could result in train collisions and derailments, threatening numerous lives.
International Standards Framework
- IEC 62443: Core international standards for industrial control system security
- TS/EN 5070: European standard specifically for railway applications
Adopting TS/EN 5070 is fundamental for achieving interoperability and trust within the “Military Schengen” framework. This standard provides the common language and verifiable security controls necessary for allied military trains to travel smoothly through Turkey.
Chapter 4: Defense and Transportation Industry Integration
The Dual-Use Imperative
“Dual-use” technologies—those with both defense and civilian applications—are vital for creating sustainable and innovative industrial bases. For Turkey, a strong defense industry driven by strategic autonomy needs can expand into critical civilian sectors like transportation, increasing overall national resilience.
National Champions on Rails
Turkish technology and defense companies play crucial roles in reducing foreign dependency and building technological sovereignty by nationalizing the “brain” (signaling and control) and “heart” (traction systems) of Turkey’s railway infrastructure.
ASELSAN
Develops domestic signaling solutions compatible with Communication Based Train Control (CBTC) for metro systems and European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) for mainline railways. The promising contract with TCDD to equip 99 locomotives with ERTMS-compatible signaling represents a significant milestone.
TÜBİTAK RUTE (Rail Transportation Technologies Institute)
Represents the R&D power of Turkey’s railway sector, developing domestic interlocking systems, traffic control centers, national traction systems under the TRACS brand, and the national ÖZGÜN 8V60B diesel locomotive engine.
Strategic Solution: National and ERTMS-Compatible Systems
ASELSAN’s development of “national and ERTMS-compatible” systems provides the optimal solution to the autonomy-interoperability dilemma. This approach ensures Turkish control over technology while maintaining compatibility with global standards, enabling integration into European security architecture without foreign dependency.
Civil Railway Reserve Fleet (CRRF)
Following the US Civil Air Reserve Fleet (CRAF) model, Turkey should develop a formal “Civil Railway Reserve Fleet” plan. This would provide pre-planned, resilient, and scalable mobilization capabilities rather than uncertain temporary expropriations during crises.
The CRRF should include:
- Pre-negotiated contracts with TCDD and private railway operators
- Designation of specific rolling stock for reserve fleet
- Civilian crew certification according to military standards
- Regular joint exercises with the Ministry of National Defense
Chapter 5: Strategic Recommendations and Future Outlook
Policy Directives
- Strategic Transportation Coordination Board: Establish a permanent coordination body between the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Presidency of Defense Industries to ensure full integration of railway projects with military mobility, industrial policies, and geopolitical objectives.
- CRRF Formalization: Place the Civil Railway Reserve Fleet concept within a legal framework and implement as a detailed mobilization plan involving TCDD and private sector operators.
Investment Priorities
- MLC-Focused Modernization: Inventory bridges, viaducts, and tunnels along Turkey’s main military mobility corridors according to NATO MLC standards, prioritizing strengthening of critical points with lowest ratings.
- Multimodal Logistics Centers: Increase the number and capacity of strategic logistics centers with heavy load handling capability for efficient military equipment transfer between rail, road, and sea transport.
Regulatory Requirements
- Mandatory TS/EN 5070 Standard: Make compliance with TS/EN 5070 cybersecurity standard a legal requirement for signaling and control systems on all new and modernized railway lines.
- Domestic Product Certification: Provide financial and bureaucratic support for international certification of domestic systems developed by ASELSAN and TÜBİTAK RUTE, establishing preference mechanisms in public procurement while maintaining transparency and competition principles.
Diplomatic Leverage
- Corridor Diplomacy: Use Turkey’s central role in Middle Corridor and Development Road projects as diplomatic tools to deepen relations with Central Asian, Caucasian, and Gulf countries.
- NATO and EU Negotiations: Leverage Turkey’s logistical contributions to Military Schengen and TEN-T networks as strategic assets in negotiations, potentially securing additional funding and political support.
Conclusion
Turkey’s railway infrastructure represents a critical multiplier of national power. Maximizing this impact requires a holistic, forward-looking strategy that integrates economic development, military preparedness, industrial policy, and diplomatic objectives. The recommendations outlined provide a roadmap for positioning Turkey as an indispensable logistics hub in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
About the Author: Yigit Belin is the founder of RedApple and a strategic analyst specializing in transportation infrastructure and geopolitical analysis.
Contact: yigit@yigitbelin.com
